NAB Residential Property Survey Q4 2023

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NAB Residential Property Survey (Q4 2023)

The NAB Residential Property Index continued on an upward trajectory in the December quarter as dwelling values grew in most capital cities and regional areas and rental growth remained elevated. The market share of foreign buyers in new housing markets climbed to a 6½ year high and has now risen almost five-fold since the COVID lows in mid-2021. Construction costs and higher rates still considered the main barriers to starting new housing projects in Australia.
NAB’s outlook for property prices is unchanged. We continue to expect a 5% rise over 2024 and a slightly smaller gain in 2025. The demand/supply imbalance is likely to remain a key support in the short term, while expected rate cuts in late 2024 will provide additional support in 2025. More broadly, the economy has remained healthy despite a slowing in growth and with the unemployment rate remaining relatively low, we see a soft landing and the RBA cutting rates by around 125bps over 2025.